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Major oil stocks and index funds surged in premarket trading on Thursday as crude surged following U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning of intensified strikes on Iran, dimming hopes for a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Battalion Oil (BATL) rocketed 42%, Trio Petroleum (TPET) jumped 18%, EON Resources (EONR) gained 17%, Indonesia Energy (INDO) rose 6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) advanced 7% in premarket trading.
Brent crude traded near $108 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovered around $106 after U.S. President Donald Trump warned the conflict with Iran would intensify. In a late-night White House address, he said the U.S. would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and added the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “naturally” once the war ends, without giving a timeline.
Crude had eased earlier this week on hopes of a near-term resolution, but the latest remarks revived concerns about prolonged hostilities and possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, even as Trump said the conflict was “very close” to completion.
The effective closure of Hormuz continues to restrict flows of crude, gas and refined fuels, keeping Brent more than 40% above pre-war levels and sustaining inflation worries. Trump also warned the U.S. could “blow up Iranian infrastructure, including power plants,” if transit through the strait is not restored.
Meanwhile, the UAE has joined calls for the UN to authorize action to reopen the route, while China and Pakistan urged safeguards for shipping. Iran said it would not reopen the waterway under pressure, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying Tehran and Oman would decide its future. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also dismissed Washington’s stance as “absurd displays.”
Analysts said the latest escalation signals reinforce near-term upside risks for crude, even if shipping disruptions eventually ease. Trump’s threat is “injecting fresh uncertainty into energy markets,” two members of ING Group’s commodities strategy team said in a note. They added that even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre-war market conditions is likely to be slow as upstream production restarts, logistics normalization and inventory rebuilding take time, WSJ noted.
Meanwhile, analysts at online trading platform XS.com said oil could “easily top $110 a barrel again in the near term,” noting that traders appear to be building positions in anticipation of further supply disruptions following Trump’s comments. They added that the market has yet to fully price in the risk of a broader Middle East escalation and that near-term upside risks outweigh downside risks.
XS.com also said that the medium-term outlook is more balanced, as expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate increases could strengthen the dollar and pressure commodities priced in the currency. They said crude’s trajectory beyond the immediate conflict will depend on how the global economy absorbs the impact of tighter financial conditions.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment on USO, TPET and EONR was ‘bearish’, with message volume ‘normal’, ‘extremely low’ and ‘low’, respectively. Sentiment on INDO was ‘extremely bearish’ with ‘extremely low’ message volume, while BATL stood out as ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ activity.
Over the past year, BATL surged 187%, while USO and EONR each gained 61%. INDO rose 18%, while TPET declined 52%.
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