Is The Lithium Slump Ending? A Forecast From China Just Stirred The Market

• According to a Bloomberg News report, the most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange jumped 9%, closing limit-up at 95,200 yuan ($13,400) a ton.
• As per the report, citing local media Cailian, Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.’s chairman, Li Liangbin, said on Sunday he expects demand to grow by 30% in 2026.
• Li told an industry conference that if next year’s demand growth surpasses 30% or reaches 40%, prices could rise to 150,000 yuan or even 200,000 yuan a ton.

Lithium stocks gained in premarket trading on Monday, following Chinese peers, after a major Chinese producer reportedly provided a bullish outlook for lithium demand.

Albemarle, the top U.S. lithium producer, rose 4.6% in early trading while Lithium Americas rose 3.4% and Sigma Lithium jumped over 17%.

Lithium Demand Growth Can Top 30%

According to a Bloomberg News report, the most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange jumped 9%, closing limit-up at 95,200 yuan ($13,400) a ton. As per the report, citing local media Cailian, Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.’s chairman, Li Liangbin, said on Sunday he expects demand to grow by 30% in 2026.

The report stated that Li told an industry conference that if next year’s demand growth surpasses 30% or reaches 40%, prices could rise to 150,000 yuan or even 200,000 yuan a ton. He reportedly stated that in that scenario, the supply of the metal used in batteries will not be able to keep pace with demand in the short term, despite the market’s surplus of about 200,000 tons this year.

According to a McKinsey report, while electric-vehicle sales have scaled back from their peak, battery technology continues to advance rapidly. The consultancy firm expects global demand to rise from roughly 1,970 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2025 to about 3,910 GWh by 2030. The rise is expected to be fueled by the rapid adoption of battery storage solutions at AI data centers.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Albemarle was in the ‘bullish’ territory at the time of writing, while traders were ‘neutral’ about Sigma and ‘bearish’ about Lithium Americas.

Lithium Americas' stock has gained nearly 49% this year, while Albemarle's stock has gained 33%. In comparison, Sigma Lithium's stock has fallen by over 46% amid operational issues at its mining projects.

Also See: Boeing Stock In Spotlight After It Lands Major 777X Order From Emirates

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