FINV FinVolution Group - ADR

$FINV I liked the CC. I'm initiating after Q3 which should be a disaster. IMO, long term, buying FINV under 3$ will be very lucrative.

$FINV earnings were great and they even raised guidance. $LX flying after hours 7% as a reaction. Monday with the new buyback I wouldn’t be surprised LX flying 50%. Major squeeze coming Monday.

$FINV This is much better than I would have ever expected after the QFIN CC, I am astonished that they reiterated their full year guidance. Amazing.

$FINV The call and projections should be the most interesting item since everything went sideways after the end of the quarter. LU’s recent call had a cautious tone on the industry, but there were at least a few positives buried in it. QFIN’s call, on the other hand, made it sound like the fall of an empire, with management basically suggesting that only the largest and strongest players will survive this shakeout. FINV still carries the highest valuation among the main China fintech names, so I don’t have a position at these levels. Still watching closely to see whether the valuation gap narrows or the call changes the story.

$FINV Wow, maybe a little overdone at this point. Barely over net cash now. They can get through a couple rough quarters while still making money, emerge from this in a strong position, I would think.

$FINV Revenue in 2026: Q1: 3.2b Q2: 3.4b Q3: 2.3b Q4: 2.7b Q3 and Q4 are my estimates based on their guidance of 11.5b for the year. Q3 will be the worst quarter of all time for all of these stocks. They will not recover before the news are fully out with the Q3 reports. Buy around the Q3 ER day. And then only if Q4 really gets better.

$FINV closed today at $4.02 and printed a fresh 52-week low. The regular-session low sits at $4.19 and the overnight tape pushed all the way to $3.94. This is the bottom of the entire yearly range — the stock has given back its full move from $9.26 and is now trading where it has not traded in a year. This is exactly where a stock proves itself or folds. THE SETUP RSI is at 21.5 on the daily. Not 40. Not 30. Twenty-one. That is a reading you get a handful of times a year in a name, and it means every seller who wanted out has been given a full year of chances to leave. The RSI-based moving average sits up at 34.96, which tells you how far below its own trend this thing has stretched. There is plenty of room to recover before this is anywhere near extended. Volume told the story on the way down. FINV averages roughly 500,000 shares a day. On August 26 it traded 1.91 million — nearly four times normal. That is capitulation volume into a 52-week low, and capitulation volume at the bottom of a range is the signature you want to see before a turn, not after it. The 150-day sits at $5.00 and the 200-day at $5.07. Both are roughly 24% above the current price. Those are not the target here — they are waypoints on the way to it. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED TONIGHT FinVolution reported Q2 after the close and the print was better than the tape suggested. GAAP EPS came in at $0.43, up 4.88% year over year. Revenue was $500.91M, up 0.30%. Most importantly, management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of roughly RMB 11.5B to RMB 12.9B. Context matters on that last point. $QFIN's call on this same sector read like the fall of an empire, with management suggesting only the largest players survive the shakeout. $LX and $LU have been sending cautious signals. Against that backdrop, FINV holding its full-year number is the outlier, and the after-hours tape has already marked the stock up to $4.16 from the $4.02 close. Be clear-eyed about the other side: management also flagged a considerable contraction in third-quarter China transaction volume. That is a real headwind and it is why this stock is at $4 instead of $6. The setup is not that the business is booming. The setup is that a company reiterating full-year guidance into a sector-wide panic is priced at the bottom of its 52-week range with RSI at 21. THE LEVEL LADDER First gate is $4.22, the weekly level just overhead. Reclaim that and the daily structure at $4.35 and $4.49 comes back into play. Those two are where this stock spent the last week before breaking down, so getting back above them turns recent resistance into support. The real test is the moving-average cluster at $5.00 and $5.07. The 150 and 200-day are stacked within seven cents of each other, and that is the wall this name has to clear. A decisive close above $5.09 confirms renewed bullish momentum and opens the path to $5.87. From there the target is $6.39 — the weekly resistance that capped this name on the way down. THE TRADE Entry zone: $4.02 to $4.20 Waypoints: $4.22, $4.35, $4.49, $5.00, $5.07, $5.87 Price target: $6.39 Stop loss: $3.54 Risk/reward: 4.94:1 at $4.02, 3.60:1 if you pay up to $4.16 Stop clearly defined at $3.54, below the overnight low and below the entire recent range. Wide enough that normal noise will not shake you out, tight enough that the math still works. How this stock reacts at $4.22 tells you everything about whether buyers are stepping in or stepping away. There may be one final dip toward the overnight low before the real move begins. If you enjoy my analysis, likes, follows, and shares help more than you know!

$FINV and we managed to escape before the drawdown to sub 4s. Can’t help but thinking this company will be successful once the international arm > china arm. Gotta sit out near term but worth watching over the next year

$FINV 26Q2 EC: "I think most of the small and middle-sized platforms have either exited or pulled back sharply on lending, and we are relatively less impacted, but our China volume was down around 50% in July. Looking at August, we believe institutional confidence has started to stabilize. But the funding recovery is still coming back at a slower pace." " I think over the long term, financial institutions will keep reducing their exposure to those small platforms and focus on the big platforms, that they are compliant, well-capitalized, and have a strong risk track record. That's where we sit. " "we have seen some movement in our early risk indicators as a result. Our latest reading is up around 20% versus the second quarter. "

$FINV Q2 '26 Earnings Results & Recap • Reported GAAP EPS of $0.43 up 4.88% YoY • Reported revenue of $500.91M up 0.30% YoY • FinVolution reiterated its full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to be in the range of approximately RMB11.5B to RMB12.9B, while anticipating a considerable contraction in third-quarter China transaction volume.