fitch-ratings-oil-company-warning
Each time you fill up your fuel tank, India's state-owned oil companies are losing money on the transaction. So far, it has helped the economy. However, Fitch Ratings today hinted that this arrangement could potentially become financially dangerous. Retail petrol and diesel prices in India have been frozen since April 2022, nearly four years, even as Brent crude has crossed $108 per barrel and is hovering well above Fitch's own "adverse scenario" threshold of $100/barrel. State-run oil marketing companies, such as IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, are currently losing approximately ₹18 per litre on petrol and ₹35 per litre on diesel, according to market estimates. Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri publicly acknowledged in March 2026 that OMCs were losing around ₹24 a litre on petrol and ₹30 a litre on diesel. In LPG, the total industry under-recovery in FY25 alone was estimated at ₹40,500 crore. Fitch stated that the core issue was not crude price volatility, but the duration. A brief spike can be absorbed, but a sustained period of high crude with frozen pump prices could destroy EBITDA, drain working capital, and shrink free cash flow in a way that damages credit profiles over time.