IVA Inventiva - ADR

$IVA +25% in a week! Back to back green days. Frequent big block of trades recently. Ph3 result in less than a month.

$IVA I put IVA’s chance of success at < 30%. High historical MASH/NASH Phase 3 failure rate. Multiple programs with positive Phase 2 histology data failed or underdelivered in larger, longer trials due to placebo response, patient heterogeneity, duration effects, and endpoint stringency. Hard composite primary endpoint requiring both MASH resolution and ≥1-stage fibrosis improvement in the same patient at 72 weeks. Phase 2 hit the dual endpoint, but the Phase 3 bar is stricter and harder to clear cleanly. Substantially longer treatment duration than Phase 2 (72 weeks vs 24 weeks). Early signals can fade, fibrosis changes may not hold, and placebo rates commonly rise over time. Population differences versus Phase 2, including more F3 patients, a higher proportion of diabetics, and some GLP-1 use. These shifts increase uncertainty relative to the Phase 2 results. Material placebo response risk. MASH trials frequently show non-trivial placebo rates on resolution and fibrosis endpoints.

$IVA Nothing is ever guaranteed. But when you consider the insider cluster purchases with the massive 32-million-share accumulation wave from professional biotech asset managers here in the states with big players like Caligan Partners, LP 8.16 million shares, Samsara BioCapital, LLC 6.31 million shares, Paradigm Biocapital Advisors LP 4.00 million shares, Andera Partners 3.63 million shares, ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC 3.61 million shares, Millennium Management LLC 3.51 million shares, and then little’ol me with 1000 shares, and on and on ... the data shows that these deep pocket professional biotech players are drawing the exact same conclusion as the board.. that the risk-reward factor is highly favorable. Im all in!!! Shorties will try to convince you this is trash but don’t listen… You may win or you may lose.. but the odds are in your favor bulls! And if your just playing with house money, even better 😉

$IVA During today’s webcast, the CEO concluded with the following statement: “I think the next time we talk will be on the data release.” At least that’s clear!

$IVA Mate, I didn’t reply because I assumed even Stocktwits had a minimum evidence requirement. Apparently I was being optimistic. You say I have no argument. Fine. Here is the actual thesis, not the investor-deck nursery version and Ofc I used chatgpt here to triangulate my findings ( strictly based on my readings and subsequent evidence to support them) and I know what I am talking about. Lanifibranor is not another weight-loss drug pretending to be an antifibrotic. It is a non-glitazone, balanced pan-PPAR agonist with moderate α/δ activation and partial γ activation. That matters because it works across hepatocyte lipid handling, macrophage inflammation, hepatic stellate-cell activation, endothelial dysfunction and systemic insulin resistance. In plain English, it attacks the metabolic, inflammatory and fibrotic machinery together. Continues in comment

$IVA Data make or break ver soon. expect chatter to increase around this stock very soon. potentially a target for $NVO or $LLY

$IVA Truist IVA – Preview of the company-defining NATiV3 results. New PT of $18/share vs. $13/share. Ahead of the NATiV3 Phase 3 data for lani in MASH expected in Q4 2026, Truist reiterates its Buy rating on IVA with a new price target of $18/share, up from $13/share previously. Following an in-depth analysis of the Phase 2b data, the assumptions underpinning the Phase 3 trial, and management’s comments

$IVA non stop green candles. Consolidation continues. Downward pressure is limited and the big candles look like pre negotiated trades. Risk management not distribution

$IVA Wall Street analysts are unanimously bullish on Inventiva S.A. (NASDAQ: IVA), maintaining a 100% "Buy" equivalent consensus ahead of the Phase 3 NATiV3 readout. Across 9 covering firms, there are currently 0 Hold and 0 Sell ratings, signaling clear collective optimism among institutional research desks. Average Price Target: $15.50, representing a staggering +336.62% upside from recent baseline trading levels. The Bull Case Target: $26.00 (Piper Sandler / Yasmeen Rahimi). The Bear Case Target: $10.00 (TD Cowen / Ritu Baral). Even Wall Street's most conservative floor target implies a substantial gain from pre-data market capitalizations if endpoints are met.

$IVA It is coming, positive data >10. Roche paid 89bios for a biologics for MASH for 2.4 billion.

$IVA breakout inbound. The coiling is done. 2 weeks of huge volume as funds picked up shares off the bottom that were released by long term holders trimming / hedging exposure to binary.

$IVA Phase III co-primary endpoints: Fibrosis improvement and MASH reduction Phase 2b data Fibrosis improvement: 1200 mg (48%), 800 mg (34%) and placebo (29%) MASH reduction: 1200 mg (49%), 800 mg (39%) and placebo (29%).

$IVA still coiling, anyone large loading down here is buying in one hand and hedging out of the other. Volume is still high and price is holding extremely well considering markets in US and Paris. Still poised to break up and out

Truist reiterated $IVA Buy-$13 and said -- We remain buyers of IVA following EPS call & ahead of Ph3 NATIV3 data (4Q26) for lani in MASH. $MDGL LLY $NVO SGMT VKTX ALGS Truist added—Our conviction in IVA is supported by – 1) Large market opportunity with 2 drugs approved & unmet need in a heterogeneous MASH population; 2) Strong Ph2 data which showed 18% pbo-adjusted fibrosis improvement at 6-mo with potential to see deepening of response at 18-mo endpoint; & 3) KOL checks indicating low rates of weight-gain/edema being manageable and potentially outweighed by significant fibrosis and cardiometabolic improvements; we do acknowledge the latter as an investor overhang. If NATIV3 is positive, we see NDA filing in 1H27 and 2028 US commercial launch. Reiterate Buy.

$IVA The likelihood of lanifibranor achieving a positive Phase 3 result is considered high by clinical experts, driven by strong, validated mechanism-of-action data and highly successful Phase 2b results. The primary clinical evidence supporting a favorable outcome stems from the drug's design and previous trial performance, though typical Phase 3 hurdles and specific safety considerations remain. I agree with this AI prediction

$IVA I put IVA’s chance of success at <30%. Part 2. Safety and tolerability liabilities. Expected weight gain from partial PPARγ activity, along with peripheral edema, diarrhea, nausea, and mild anemia. These are commercial headwinds. Competitive pressure. Approved agents and positive Phase 3 data from other programs (including weight-loss drugs) raise the bar for differentiation and uptake. Single-asset binary risk. A miss or weak result would be highly value-destructive given the company’s dependence on this readout and limited runway beyond it.

$IVA so this daily decline gets us to what..maybe a buck by thanksgiving or Xmas? At which point even good trial news naught get us back to 3-4 tops?

$IVA Quote from the article below: "Obenshain said the company is open to acquisition interest, but its current plan is to launch independently. “We are building the company to do it ourselves,” he said." Interpretation: We want to be acquired for a price that is good for us and out share holders.

$IVA stated its interim financial report for the first half of 2026, with unaudited results and a corporate presentation.

$IVA On August 27, 2026, a highly coordinated cluster of buying took place among the company's leadership. Five independent board members simultaneously stepped into the market, with each director purchasing exactly 50,000 units. When a single insider buys, it can simply reflect personal portfolio planning; however, when multiple board members buy in unison (cluster buying), it is generally interpreted by the market as a strong, collective vote of confidence in the upcoming clinical timeline.