PBF PBF Energy Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

$PBF it is interesting to me that last quarter the California's Teacher Retirement System bought almost 5M shares (99% increase).

$PBF I expect very strong refinery profits for a while. I don’t expect the government’s heavy hand to do too much.

$PBF There's another reason I like this transaction: PBF is refinancing expensive debt with 0% debt. The company plans to use the proceeds, after the capped-call cost, together with cash to redeem its 7.875% notes due 2030. Net proceeds are expected to be about $485 million before the $25.2 million capped-call expenditure. That's potentially a significant reduction in annual interest expense. Every $500 million of 7.875% debt costs about $39.4 million annually in interest. Replacing expensive debt with 0% exchangeable debt is financially attractive, although we'd need the exact amount of the 2030 notes being redeemed to calculate the actual savings. Yesterday investors saw "$500M exchangeable offering" and worried about dilution. Today they have the actual terms: 0% coupon + $96.80 exchange price + $123.20 capped call + proceeds retiring 7.875% debt. That's a much more shareholder-friendly package than simply issuing $500 million of stock around $70.

$PBF this mini sell off is a gift. Market conditions never better for PBF. Going to be a great 2H as shorts are trying to be hero’s and call the top.

$PBF This is a momentum/crack-spread trade at all-time highs with insiders selling and consensus valuation below spot. Long exposure here is a bet that Middle East disruption and tight product markets persist through the Trump refiner meeting next week; a break below $71–72 on volume would be the first real invalidation signal for bulls, with $68 as the harder stop given where insiders sold. Not a name to chase fresh at the ATH without a tight stop.

$PBF Who doesn't love maths. Ironic if it goes +75% by then: 3. How often do capped calls actually prevent dilution? Across the market: In ~60–70% of convertible deals, the stock never reaches the cap. In ~40–50%, the stock never even reaches the conversion price. Only ~20–30% of deals end up with meaningful dilution above the cap. For refiners specifically, the probability is even lower because: earnings are cyclical margins revert stocks rarely sustain multi‑year +75% moves So historically, capped calls do their job most of the time.

$PBF oil price will go down because of availability but refining margins stay high because after a little demand destruction it'll hit a sweet spot where the spread stays higher than historically. so much news about this lol i love this ticker

$PBF The refiners are running hard and near capacity limits, which constrains how much additional total crude they can process without further investments or reduced throughput of other grades. Absorbing large new volumes of any crude (including Venezuelan) faces real operational headroom constraints.

$PBF Yep, nope. I know a new recommendation came out today. nope. Momentum trades are dead.

$PBF I think it is digesting the recent financing done at slightly higher prices and that the market is supporting the equity at 70 so I think institutions are stepping in there. I am going to accumulate against it as long as it holds and anticipate continuing spiking prices into winter. Further UN week is a probable break in some hostilities and bad for petroleum in that term but also likely to revert next week.

$PBF I have it on good authority that the party's over for PBF right now. It has peaked. I got out with losses and have to lose the last bit tomorrow. It sucks, but I still came out ahead. It was a great run. Best I've ever traded.

$PBF so much refining will be needed soon thanks to the clowns running the country. This is the golden opportunity for PBF, should hit many more all time highs