The recession forecasts continue this time, with Goldman Sachs saying it sees a 48% cumulative recession probability over the next two years. But, again, this is up significantly from its previous “guess” of 35%.
Even retail favorite Cathie Wood is joining the party, warning that the Fed is ignoring dangerous signals and that its aggressive rate hikes risk plunging the U.S. into a recession. ⚠️
Clearly, recession worries are everywhere, from the forecasts of central bankers/government officials/Wall Street firms and economic data to media outlets like the N.Y. Post.
Meanwhile, newly released economic data isn’t helping sentiment these days. 😮💨
Existing home sales fell 3.4% in May, the weakest reading since June 2020, as median home prices broke above $400,000 for the first time in history. 🏘️
Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index edged lower in May, though still buoyed by solid demand in the manufacturing sector. 📉
While we may not have a crystal ball like the economists at Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms, the recent market action continues to price in high inflation and weaker economic growth.
So far, there’s not been a lot of data to suggest otherwise, so we’ll have to rely on the crystal balls’ forecast for now. And it doesn’t look good. 🔮