TD Cowen Raises GLP-1 Sales Forecast To $150B By 2030 – Industry Leaders LLY, NVO To Remain Dominant

• The brokerage said declining price per treatment will be offset by higher volumes of treatment.  
• LLY and NVO are expected to maintain market leadership, with projected market shares of 62% and 31%, respectively.
• TD Cowen said oral GLP-1 is expected to account for 14% of overall sales, up from its previous estimate of 11%

Weight-loss and diabetes drugmaker shares saw pre-market gains on Friday after TD Cowen raised its global sales forecast for GLP-1, citing higher patient adoption and rising demand despite pricing pressure.

Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares traded 1% higher, while Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) gained around 0.3%.

Higher Volumes To Offset Lower Treatment Price

On Friday, TD Cowen raised its forecast for global GLP-1 sales to $150 billion by 2030, according to an Investing.com report. This was significantly above its March estimate of $139 billion.

The firm expects around 59 million patients worldwide to be using GLP-1 therapies by the end of the decade, up sharply from its previous estimate of 46 million. TD Cowen added that despite declining GLP-1 drug prices, overall sales will continue to grow due to higher patient treatment volumes.

According to its previous forecast, diabetes therapies are expected to account for 59% of total GLP-1 sales by 2030, while obesity treatments make up the remaining 41%.

LLY, NVO To Continue Lead

Industry leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are expected to remain dominant, accounting for a combined 93% of the market’s value. 

TD Cowen expects Eli Lilly, with its blockbuster drugs Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the newly launched Foundayo, to hold 62% of the total market share, while Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic are expected to support its 31% share. Mounjaro recently became the world’s top-selling drug. 

Race To Capture Oral Therapy Market Share

TD Cowen raised its forecast for non-injectable versions of the weight-loss treatments, with oral GLP-1s expected to account for 14% of overall sales, up from its previous estimate of 11%.

The competition between Novo and Lilly is increasingly shifting toward oral weight-loss treatments. Novo gained an early advantage with the launch of its daily Wegovy pill in January, while Lilly entered the market in April with Foundayo.

Prescription data suggests Novo’s oral therapy has gotten off to a stronger start. However, Lilly recently said Foundayo has already attracted more than 8,000 prescribers and reached over 20,000 patients.

LLY Stock Outperforms NVO In 2026

Meanwhile, retail sentiment surrounding LLY on Stocktwits was ‘bullish’ and ‘neutral’ on NVO.

NVO shares have declined around 15% so far this year, underperforming LLY’s 4% increase. Lilly has been rapidly expanding its oncology segment this year through a series of acquisitions.

The Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (OZEM) is down more than 12% so far in 2026.

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