Mike Novogratz Reportedly Sees Bitcoin Holding $120K-$125K Through Year-End, Points To Two Potential Catalysts

• Mike Novogratz expects Bitcoin to stay between $120,000 and $125,000 through the end of 2025 and sees limited upside without policy catalysts.
• The Galaxy CEO pointed to potential Fed action and crypto legislation as triggers.
• Novogratz’s outlook contrasts with Tom Lee’s $250,000 target, which he said would require “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff” to happen in a short period of time.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz reportedly said on Wednesday that he expects Bitcoin (BTC) to remain in a relatively narrow range through the end of the year, trading between $120,000 and $125,000.

“I do think we should hold $100,000 or somewhere close to that should be the downside. And on the upside, you don't really accelerate until you take out $125,000,” Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC. “So, the most likely outlook is we're ranging between $120,000 and $125,000, unless we take out the top side.”

Galaxy’s stock fell more than 13% in morning trade on Wednesday after it reported its third quarter (Q3) results after market on Tuesday. It was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing. 

The dip in its stock price comes despite beating analyst estimates. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.12, ahead of the consensus forecast of $0.38. Its revenue came in at $28.4 billion, ahead of the estimated $17.25 billion. However, on Stocktwits, retail sentiment trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘extremely high’ levels of chatter. 

What Could Push Bitcoin Higher

Bitcoin’s price traded flat during morning trade on Wednesday at around $108,100. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the leading cryptocurrency remained in ‘neutral’ territory amid ‘high’ levels of chatter over the past day. While Bitcoin remains highly volatile, Novogratz emphasized a base case range with strong buyer support around $100,000. “Crypto is both a risk asset and a safe haven for debasement of currency,” he said. 

Novogratz said a breakout could occur if the White House pressures the Federal Reserve to ease policy sooner than planned or if pending legislation supportive of crypto assets advances before year-end. “Those are the two kinds of catalysts I see,” he said.

Bitcoin Outlook For Traders And Investors

The outlook among crypto analysts remains divided. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has set a year-end target of $250,000 for Bitcoin, citing strong institutional inflows and ETF demand. Novogratz, however, cautioned that such a move would require “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff” to happen in a short period.

Novogratz highlighted the recent volatility in crypto markets following the crypto crash earlier this month, which reduced liquidity and temporarily unsettled prices. “Crypto had a great start to the year. Post the sell-off, Bitcoin hit $125,000, and we’ve had a real consolidation since then,” he said. 

He stressed that the fundamentals remain intact, with ongoing government spending supporting Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against currency debasement. Political volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, including potential Fed policy shifts, add complexity to market predictions, he said.

Read also: FalconX To Acquire 21Shares In Push Toward Crypto ETF Expansion: Report

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