Apple Analyst Flags India Trade Deal As Key Catalyst After Stock's 8-Day Losing Streak Amid ‘Tariffs Rubik’s Cube’

Indo-U.S. trade talks are reportedly gathering steam, with more discussions planned in New Delhi in the next few weeks.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause of the ‘Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs ends on July 8. A no-deal scenario by the deadline could mean an additional 24% levy on all goods imported from India.

Against the backdrop, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said he believes that one of the biggest U.S. trade and tariff deals that the Street and tech investors are laser-focused on is India.

The analyst sees India's technology workforce, high engineering talent, and supply chain infrastructure as “one big threat” to China’s “elite” tech supply chain global status.

According to the analyst, Apple, Inc. (AAPL) could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a deal.

Ives called Apple’s shifting iPhone production a “fairy tale that is not feasible” due to the labor and cost structure, which may result in an iPhone price point of over $3,500. 

“We believe AAPL will continue to navigate this complex tariff situation in a game of negotiations with the Trump Administration, especially heading into iPhone 17 production this Fall,” the analyst said.

On Friday, Trump warned Apple and CEO Tim Cook that a tariff of at least 25% must be paid to the U.S. if the iPhones sold in the U.S. are not built in the country. Later, he told reporters that 25% would apply to Samsung or anybody else who makes the product.

Commenting on this, Ives said it “speaks to a broader theme around bringing the tech supply chain domestically... which we view as untenable in its current state.”

Wedbush maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating on Apple stock and a $270 price target, reflecting “incremental confidence in the India iPhone supply chain situation.”

The firm said, “Apple remains one of our top tech picks for 2025 despite this current tariff Rubik's Cube, which clouds the near-term outlook.”

On Stocktwits, sentiment toward Apple stock was ‘neutral’ (49/100), although the message volume stayed ‘high.’

Apple stock ended Friday’s session down 3.02% at 4195.27, bringing its year-to-date losses to about 22%. The stock is currently on an eight-session losing streak amid tariff uncertainty.

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