ASTS, SPCX And NN Stocks Slide: Clear Street Calls FCC Meeting Agenda Mixed For AST SpaceMobile

• A proposal to make an additional 482 MHz eligible for Supplemental Coverage from Space leasing would benefit carrier deals such as AST SpaceMobile’s with AT&T and Verizon, rather than standalone satellite models, Clear Street said. 
• A separate plan to auction 25 MHz that could be used for terrestrial cellular or direct-to-device service is a limited risk for AST SpaceMobile and offers optionality for SpaceX, the firm said.
• NextNav’s expected lower-900 MHz GPS-backup item was left off the agenda, delaying that catalyst by at least a month, the firm added.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares sold off as investors digested an early look at the Federal Communications Commission’s October 29 agenda, which Clear Street called a mixed signal for the satellite-to-phone company, even as the firm kept its ‘Buy’ rating.

The agenda, which Clear Street said was released a day sooner than markets expected, lists three wireless proposals from Chairman Brendan Carr. None of the satellite items is a final rule. They are proposals the commission will consider, not decisions already made.

The Thursday drop for ASTS extends a slide that began a day earlier, when the stock fell 3.9% after a separate Space Bureau authorization cleared SpaceX to use newly acquired spectrum for a 15,000-satellite direct-to-cell system. That grant is not one of the meeting votes.

ASTS Stands To Gain From More Leasable Spectrum

One FCC proposal would open an additional 482 megahertz of airwaves to leasing under the FCC’s Supplemental Coverage from Space rules. That framework lets satellites use mobile-carrier spectrum to reach ordinary phones where towers do not cover.

Clear Street said the change would favor companies that work through carrier deals rather than those trying to operate as standalone satellite networks. AST SpaceMobile fits the first model. It has partnerships with AT&T and Verizon, so extra leasable spectrum could widen the pool of frequencies those carriers might make available. The benefit is not automatic; carriers would still decide how much to lease and on what terms.

A Narrow Auction Risk For ASTS, Optionality For SPCX

A second proposal would auction 25 megahertz in the 1675–1695 MHz and 2020–2025 MHz bands. Winning bidders could use it for ground-based cellular service, direct-to-device satellite links, or a mix of both.

Clear Street described the risk to AST as real but narrow. New spectrum that can be used from the ground could eventually compete with satellite fill-in service, yet the block is small, and its final rules are still open. The same auction, the firm said, offers optionality for SpaceX. Clear Street maintains a ‘Buy’ on SpaceX as well.

Drone Order Leaves ASTS And SPCX Rules Unchanged

The third item is a Report and Order (R&O) that would drop an outdated restriction blocking drone operations in the 800 MHz cellular band. If adopted, it would open 50 megahertz of licensed, nationwide low-band spectrum for unmanned aircraft and put that band on more equal footing with other flexible-use spectrum. Carr has framed the change as support for U.S. commercial and defense drone makers. It does not rewrite the direct-to-device rules that matter to AST or SpaceX.

NN Catalyst Slips At Least A Month

Investors had also watched for an item on GPS-backup company NextNav’s push to rework lower 900 MHz spectrum for a terrestrial backup to GPS. That proposal did not appear on the agenda.

Clear Street said the omission pushes the potential catalyst back by at least a month. The firm kept its ‘Buy’ rating on NextNav.

While ASTS stock traded 7% lower at the time of writing, SPCX traded 3% lower, and NN was down 12%.

How Did ASTS, NN Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ASTS stayed within the 'bullish' territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at 'high' levels.

Meanwhile, sentiment around SPCX and NN was 'bullish.'

ASTS stock has fallen 22% year-to-date, while NN slumped 33%. SPCX, meanwhile, is trading at about $162, above its IPO price of $135 but below its all-time high of about $226. 

Read More: IMVT, ROIV Stocks Slide As Argenx Sjögren’s Trial Failure Hits Drug Class

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com