Cooling US Bird Flu Wave Removes Tailwind For Moderna, Novavax, CureVac, Traws Pharma

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has ended its emergency response to the H5N1 bird flu outbreak, a move that removes a key policy tailwind for vaccine developers, including Moderna, Novavax, CureVac, and Traws Pharma.

The CDC reportedly deactivated its response last week and will now track bird flu alongside seasonal influenza, updating human monitoring data monthly, Bloomberg reported. 

Animal transmission data will no longer be published, the agency said. Washington and California, two of the most affected states, have also scaled back efforts. 

California ended its emergency declaration in April, while Washington is downsizing its public health response. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services stated that the CDC’s transition reflects a return to regular program operations. 

During the response, 375 CDC staff had been assigned to the outbreak, the agency added.

The CDC’s move comes amid broader federal cutbacks. Earlier this year, HHS scrapped a $766 million deal with Moderna for developing mRNA bird flu vaccines.

Public health officials said a decline in surveillance would make it harder to spot the next outbreak.  “We are letting our guard down,” said Michael Kinch, an infectious disease expert at Stony Brook University.

In January, heightened bird flu fears had boosted attention on pandemic-preparedness companies. 

The U.S. reported its first human death from H5N1 in Louisiana and awarded $306 million for avian flu response, including $176 million to Moderna for its mRNA-1018 vaccine candidate.

Novavax had been advancing pre-clinical H5N1 vaccine research, while Germany’s CureVac partnered with GlaxoSmithKline on another bird flu shot. 

Traws Pharma, which is developing a one-dose antiviral therapy called tivoxavir marboxil, disclosed promising preclinical results in December 2024 and plans a Phase 2 trial this year.

Bird flu has infected at least 70 people in the U.S. since the start of the outbreak, mostly agricultural workers. While most cases have been mild, one fatality was recorded in January. The virus remains a concern in migratory birds and cattle.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was mixed across vaccine makers: ‘bullish’ for Moderna and GSK, ‘neutral’ for Novavax, and ‘bearish’ for CureVac. Meanwhile, message volume was ‘high’ for GSK, ‘normal’ for Moderna and Novavax, and ‘extremely low’ for CureVac.

Year to date, Moderna shares are down 28.8%, Novavax has fallen 22.9%, while CureVac has gained 56.8%.

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