Corporate America Warns Of Rising Recession Odds, Inflation Spike As CEOs Shun Trump Tariffs — Survey

A survey of CEOs found that U.S. corporate heads have increasingly become pessimistic about economic and business conditions in April as President Donald Trump stirred uncertainty by announcing sweeping tariffs on its trading partners.

Chief Executive’s April survey of CEO confidence that collected responses from 329 CEOs and business owners between April 8-10 found that 62% braced for either a mild recession or a severe one, up from 60% in March.

The survey found that the percentage forecasting a severe recession nearly quintupled to 14% from 3% in the previous month, while the proportion bracing for a mild recession dropped from 48% to 57%. 

That said, some among the CEOs remained hopeful that the acute pain will be short-lived as the Trump administration resolves its tariff strategy within a year.

The percentage of CEOs who expect business conditions to improve in 12 months from now rose to 52% from 39% in March. 

The survey also found that 67% said they disapprove of the tariffs, and 76% said the levies will hurt their businesses “negatively” or “very negatively.” One CEO saw “very difficult economic times over the next year or two.”

CEOs also feared a severe dent in revenue, profits, capital expenditures, and hiring. Portending bad tidings for the consumer economy, the proportion of CEOs who said they would cut jobs more than tripled month over month to 39% in April.

They also expect a spike in inflation. About 81% said they expect input prices for goods, services, and labor to increase in 2025 relative to the last year.  Half of them expected a double-digit percentage increase.

The 90-day tariff pause announced by Trump hadn’t made much of a difference. Those responding after the pause had similar views to those who had responded before the announcement. 

They cite an overall “lack of direction” in the White House and the impact of these actions on diplomacy and trade relations as the main reasons their confidence remained low.

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