Gold Price Surges To New Highs Ahead Of Fed Minutes, Analyst Reportedly Says $4,400 Possible By First Half Of 2026

Gold prices continued to surge to new highs on Wednesday ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes, while the U.S. government shutdown entered its eighth day.

Spot gold prices climbed to a new high of $4,049 per troy ounce, surging by 1.6% before paring some of the gains. Gold futures maturing in December gained 1.7% to rise to $4,071, before paring some of the gains.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, expects gold prices to cross $4,400 in the first half of 2026 as the Fed eases its monetary policy. However, the analyst adds that any doubts about the Fed cutting the policy rate could result in a sharp near-term pullback in gold prices.

Analysts at ING Think underscore the delay in the release of key economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown as a contributing factor in driving up the demand for gold. “Markets are pricing in a quarter-point cut this month, which would further benefit gold, as it doesn’t pay interest. Policy uncertainty and growing bets on Federal Reserve easing are keeping safe-haven demand strong,” the firm said in its latest note.

Gold prices have surged 54% year-to-date, crossing the $3,000 level for the first time in March. Since then, prices of the yellow metal have soared by nearly 35%.

Despite the run-up in gold prices this year, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio recommended that investors increase the allocation for gold in their portfolios. “It’s very much like the early ’70s...where do you put your money in?” Dalio asked, adding that debt instruments are not an “effective storehold of wealth” due to the current supplies.

“Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio. If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective, you would probably have something like 15% of your portfolio in gold … because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down,” Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Spot silver prices have also surged to a new all-time high, rising to $49.03 per ounce, surpassing the 2011 high of $47.95 after a 2.5% surge on Wednesday. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) was up 2.51% at the time of writing, while the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) was up 2.63%.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was up 1.4% at the time of writing, while the iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU) was up 1.39%. The GLD and IAU ETFs have both surged more than 51% year-to-date, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the two ETFs trending in the ‘extremely bullish’ and ‘bullish’ territories, respectively.

Also See: Dow Futures Edge Up As Wall Street Awaits Fed Minutes: TSLA, EFX, CFLT, PENG Among Stocks To Watch

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