Is BYD's Boom Fading? China's EV Leader Said To Slash 2025 Sales Target By Nearly A Million Units

BYD has reportedly cut its 2025 sales target by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, marking what could be its slowest annual growth in five years and a sign its record-breaking expansion may be ending. 

China’s largest automaker had told analysts in March it was aiming for 5.5 million sales, but the target has been reduced several times since, with the latest figure shared internally and with select suppliers last month, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The goal remains subject to change depending on market conditions. The downgrade comes as BYD faces intensifying competition from rivals such as Geely Auto and Leapmotor, according to the report.

BYD last week posted a 30% plunge in quarterly profit, marking its first drop in more than three years. Wall Street is also trimming expectations, with Deutsche Bank forecasting sales of 4.7 million vehicles this year and Morningstar putting the figure at 4.8 million. 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morningstar now expect BYD to sell 4.7 million and 4.8 million vehicles, respectively, this year. The revised target represents 7% growth from last year but would be the weakest pace since 2020, when sales fell 7%.

In the first eight months of 2025, BYD achieved only 52% of its original target. The slowdown highlights the broader deflationary pressures on China’s economy amid a prolonged housing downturn. 

Though BYD’s sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids surged tenfold between 2020 and 2024 to 4.3 million units, putting it on par with General Motors and Ford, growth is cooling in its main market of China, where it derives nearly 80% of sales and faces a bruising price war.

BYD has slowed production, delayed factory expansion, and seen sales of economy cars under 150,000 yuan, its core domestic segment, fall 9.6% year-on-year in July. 

In contrast, Geely’s sales in the same category jumped 90%, and the company raised its 2025 sales target to 3 million vehicles from 2.71 million. BYD’s production also fell for a second consecutive month in August, the first back-to-back contraction since 2020.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for BYD was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

BYD’s U.S.-listed stock has risen 23.8% so far in 2025.

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