NCNO Stock Posts Best Day In 7 Months After Strong Q4: Analysts Still See Over 50% Upside

• NCNO shares jumped over 10% on Wednesday, after fourth-quarter results came in higher than expectations.
• The financial software firm announced new contracts with a global financial institution in Japan and a top-three Austrian bank.
• Stocktwits sentiment for NCNO is ‘extremely bullish.’

NCino Inc. shares surged 10.6% on Wednesday, marking their strongest single-day gain in over seven months, after the financial software firm delivered better-than-expected quarterly results and issued an upbeat annual outlook.

The NCNO ticker also lit up on Stocktwits, drawing heavy late-day buzz as retail sentiment flipped from ‘neutral’ to ‘extremely bullish,’ supported by a wave of positive analyst calls.

“$NCNO loading zone,” said a user, while another said, “$20’s ahead,” referring to their price target. Many also welcomed the rally, noting that it comes at a time when software stocks are under broad pressure.

NCino is a cloud-based banking software platform that helps financial institutions digitize operations like loans, account opening, onboarding, compliance, and portfolio management, with AI improving decision-making and efficiency. It serves over 2,700 customers, including banks and credit unions.

Analyst’s View On NCNO

Following the earnings report late Tuesday, Wall Street remained broadly constructive, although several price target cuts reflected a more cautious valuation backdrop for software stocks.

Piper Sandler upgraded nCino to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ with a price target of $22, down from $30. The research firm called the report "healthy" and the outlook "prudent," highlighting "strong" early renewal activity and landing marquee international customers.

Morgan Stanley kept its 'Overweight' rating and raised its price target to $23 from $21, telling investors that nCino's Pricing and Banking Advisor products are scaling faster than expected, reinforcing the firm's conviction that growth should accelerate in fiscal 2027 and beyond.

Goldman Sachs maintained its 'Neutral' rating while trimming its target to $24 from $28. The firm noted that nCino reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted operating profit roughly 1% and 5% above consensus, respectively, driven by 17% annual contract value growth. Goldman flagged a modest deceleration in organic subscription growth to 7% but added that the setup points to accelerating subscription revenue growth ahead.

Truist remained a bit more cautious. Analyst Terry Tillman cut his price target to $19 from $27 while keeping a 'Hold' rating, acknowledging that AI-led expansion and improved pipeline conversion drove strength in the quarter and management appears to be executing against its stated priorities. However, Tillman noted that growth remains modest relative to peers and that the firm's valuation reset reflects broader software-sector pressure driven by AI-related fears.

Overall, 11 of 17 analysts covering nCino rate it 'Buy' or higher, with six at 'Hold,' per Koyfin. The average price target of $26.07 implies roughly 57% upside from the stock's last close.

Q4 Results Recap

Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter rose 6% to $149.7 million, and adjusted income doubled to $0.37 per share from $0.19. Both came in higher than analysts’ expectations of $147.9 million revenue and $0.21 per share earnings.

The company announced new contracts with a global financial institution in Japan and a top-three Austrian bank, as well as expanded work with two large existing customers.

It also authorized an additional $100 million share repurchase to be completed under an accelerated share repurchase.

For its fiscal 2027, NCino forecasts revenue of $639 million to $643 million, representing 7.8% annual growth. It expects adjusted operating income of $165 million to $170 million, which is higher than analysts’ forecast of $154.3 million.

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