SoftBank Has Ousted Toyota As Japan's Most Valuable Company, Thanks To Masayoshi Son's AI Bet — And Retail Is Paying Attention

• SoftBank stock has gained 66% this year, reaching a 48.16 trillion yen (about $302 billion) market capitalization on Monday.
• Toyota shares have declined 10% amid weakness in the broader auto industry, exacerbated by pressure from the U.S. tariffs and Iran war.
• Retail sentiment was ‘bullish’ for SFTBY and ‘extremely bearish’ for TM on Monday, according to Stocktwits data.

SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor as Japan’s most valuable public company, underscoring investors’ shifting preferences and their rush to back companies tied to the AI boom. And retail interest has clearly diverged, with investors more willing to ride the AI wave amid a slowdown in the global auto industry.

The development highlights the diverging fortunes of two of Japan’s most iconic business groups. Masayoshi Son-led SoftBank shares rallied 13% to hit an all-time high on Monday, after it unveiled a plan to invest $52 billion towards new data centers in France, a move intended to diversify its data-center footprint outside the U.S. and Japan.

The stock has risen sharply in recent weeks, driven by growing optimism about AI-related demand and news that OpenAI and SB Energy, two of SoftBank's key investments, are preparing for initial public offerings.

Last month, SoftBank reported that its profit tripled to 1.83 trillion yen ($11.60 billion) in the March quarter, boosted by gains on the value of its OpenAI stake. SoftBank sold all of its stakes in Nvidia and T-Mobile last year, moves that have bolstered its cash reserves.

On the other hand, Toyota’s market capitalization has dwindled as U.S. tariffs, the war in the Middle East, and soft electric vehicle sales have weighed on its profits. Toyota reported an almost 50% drop in the bottom line in the recent quarter last month and said full-year profit is expected to fall by a fifth in the year that just started.
 

SoftBank’s U.S.-listed shares have climbed 66% year to date, while Toyota stock declined 10%. That compares to a nearly flat move in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ).

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for SFTBY dropped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ over the past week, while the sentiment for TM slid to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish.’ However, retail buzz for both tickers appears to be diverging: 90-day message volume for SFTBY doubled, while TM’s slumped by 78% — both have seen about a 1% rise in watchers over this period.

Analysts appear to have a more bullish view. Currently, 14 of 19 analysts have a ‘Buy’ or higher rating on SoftBank’s ADRs, per Koyfin. Their average price target of $59.21 implies 104% upside. Thirteen of 18 analysts have a ‘Buy’ or higher rating on Toyota’s ADRs, with an average target of $24.03. That’s 87% lower than the stock’s last close.

On a 12-month forward price-to-earnings basis, Toyota appears more attractively valued. The automaker trades at 9.7 times earnings, compared with 50.6 times for SoftBank.

As of the end of Monday, SoftBank’s market capitalization was 48.16 trillion yen, and Toyota’s market capitalization was 37.82 trillion yen. SoftBank overtook Toyota last Monday.

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