SpaceX Could Deliver A Q3 Beat, Says UBS — Here’s What’s Expected To Drive Growth

• UBS sees Q3 revenue at $13.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $7.5 billion, both ahead of Wall Street estimates.
• TD Cowen expects SpaceX’s AI compute leasing revenue to jump to $66 billion in 2027 and $133 billion in 2028.
• Morgan Stanley flagged recurring propulsion issues after an engine shut down prematurely during its first orbital trial run.

SpaceX (SPCX) was in focus on Tuesday after UBS said the company’s third-quarter results could come in ahead of Wall Street expectations, helped by rapid growth in artificial intelligence, Starlink connectivity and increased launches.

The brokerage reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating and $210 price target, according to TheFly. This implies an upside potential of more than 71% from current levels.

At the time of writing, SPCX stock was up 2% and is on track for its second straight monthly gain.

UBS Is Bullish On SPCX’s AI And Connectivity Businesses

UBS expects SpaceX to post Q3 revenue of $13.8 billion, about 7% above the Street’s $12.9 billion estimate, while its $7.5 billion adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) forecast is roughly 9% ahead of consensus.

The firm expects SpaceX’s AI business to lead the quarter with $7.6 billion in revenue, helped by the expansion of its agreement with Anthropic, according to Investing.com. Connectivity revenue is projected to jump 59% to $4.9 billion, while Space revenue is expected to rise to $1.3 billion, driven by increased commercial launches this year.

Analysts currently expect full-year 2026 revenue of roughly $44.82 billion, according to Fiscal.ai.

SpaceX has been spending heavily to expand AI computing infrastructure, Starlink, and its launch capabilities. UBS estimates Q3 capital expenditure at $19.3 billion.

UBS wasn’t the only firm bullish on SpaceX’s AI prospects. On Monday, TD Cowen initiated coverage of SpaceX with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $200 price target, citing significant growth opportunities across AI and space. The firm expects AI compute leasing revenue to surge from $14 billion in 2026 to $66 billion in 2027 and $133 billion in 2028.

Starship Meets Goal, But Morgan Stanley Flags Propulsion System Issues

The upbeat call comes a day after its largest and most powerful launch vehicle, Starship, completed its first orbital flight and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites during Flight 14. The mission was cut short after an engine shut down prematurely, but still achieved its key orbital and deployment goals.

Morgan Stanley called the flight a “major accomplishment” but gave it a “B+” grade, flagging recurring issues with the V3 propulsion system.

The firm said Flight 15 will be key, with a successful Starship catch potentially becoming the stock’s biggest catalyst since its IPO. The brokerage maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and $300 price target.

Retail’s Take On SPCX

Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained ‘neutral’ over the past 24 hours, amid ‘high’ message volumes.

The stock has gained around 10% over its IPO price.

Also read: IOVA Stock Hits Over 2-Year Highs – Why Iovance Raised Its FY2026 Revenue Outlook

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