Tesla Q2 Deliveries Expected To Fall Below Consensus, JPMorgan Underscores A ‘Sizable’ Shortfall

Brokerage JPMorgan expects EV giant Tesla Inc. (TSLA) to report second-quarter deliveries below the consensus estimate while noting that the softer demand for Tesla vehicles evident in Q1 results appears to have continued into Q2.

The firm sees deliveries falling from 444,000 a year ago to "just" 360,000 vehicles, representing a "sizable" 8% shortfall versus the Bloomberg consensus forecast for 392,000 deliveries, as per TheFly.

The brokerage also sees material risk to the outlook for full-year deliveries. The brokerage noted that consensus requires a sharp pivot from underperformance to outperformance of the expected seasonal pattern, despite the likely significant near-term curtailment of electric vehicle subsidies.

The Trump administration is looking to cut down the subsidies available to consumers on EV purchases in a bid to reduce federal spending. The subsidies brought the starting price of an EV, including many Tesla vehicles, down substantially for eligible customers.

In fact, both currently available versions of the company’s best-selling Model Y SUV are eligible for a federal tax credit of $7,500.

Last week, Senate Republicans released a revised tax and budget bill that would end the $7,500 EV tax credit on new EV purchases by Sept. 30, ahead of the timeline proposed by the House of Representatives.

JPMorgan has an ‘Underweight’ rating and $115 price target on Tesla shares. The price target implies an over 64% downside to the stock’s closing price of $323.63 on Friday.

JPMorgan is not alone in expecting Q2 deliveries to fall under the consensus estimate.

Last week, UBS Brokerage said it expects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to be 366,000 units.

The pessimistic expectations follow Tesla reporting deliveries of 336,681 units in the first quarter, marking a dip of nearly 13% from the corresponding quarter of 2024 and the company’s worst quarterly performance in at least two years.

In 2024, the company reported deliveries of around 1.79 million units, down from 1.81 million deliveries in 2023.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA fell from ‘neutral’ to ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours while message volume fell from ‘normal’ to ‘low’ levels.

TSLA stock is down by about 21% this year but up by about 53% over the past 12 months.

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