Tesla Set To Lead China’s EV Market In September, Outpacing Nio, Xiaomi And Xpeng: Deutsche Bank

Tesla is expected to top China’s electric vehicle market in September with about 72,000 deliveries, leading what Deutsche Bank says could be a month of record volumes for several Chinese EV makers.

The figure would represent a 27% increase from August and keep volumes roughly flat from a year earlier, according to a CnEVPost report citing a Deutsche Bank preview. Order flow was pegged at 73,000 units, driven by demand for the new six-seat, long-wheelbase Model Y L SUV, which was launched in August. 

Tesla Deliveries for new customers are currently slated for November, according to the company’s Chinese website. In the first three weeks of September, Tesla’s insurance registrations totaled 46,950 units.

Nio is forecast to deliver a record 35,000 vehicles, representing a 12% month-on-month increase and a 65% year-on-year rise. The breakdown includes about 15,000 units each from the Nio and Onvo brands and 5,000 from Firefly. The new order flow for Nio in September was estimated at around 100,000 units, a 67% month-on-month increase, led by demand for the flagship ES8 SUV. Deutsche Bank noted that Onvo faced battery supply shortages, shifting allocations from the L60 SUV to the new L90 SUV.

Xiaomi EV is expected to deliver 42,000 units, another record, marking a 15% increase from August and about 210% growth from a year ago. The company’s production rose 22% in August to 37,380 units, with capacity expected to exceed 50,000 units per month in the fourth quarter. September order flow was estimated at around 25,000 units, including 15,000 for the YU7 SUV and 10,000 for the SU7 sedan.

Xpeng is projected to hit a record 40,000 vehicles, a 6% month-on-month increase. Of these, about 37,000 are expected to be domestic sales and 3,000 overseas. Orders for September were estimated at 45,000 units, down 13% from August due to weaker demand for the G7 SUV and new P7 sedan.

Meanwhile, Li Auto is forecasted to reach 35,000 vehicles, up 23% from August but down 35% from last year. Expected new order flow was 50,000-55,000 units, of which 12,000-17,000 were for the newly introduced Li i6 SUV.

BYD is estimated to report wholesale volumes of about 380,000 units, up 2% month-on-month but down 9% year-on-year. Domestic deliveries are expected to reach around 320,000 units, with new orders at a similar level, although down 2% from August.

Deutsche Bank said September is shaping up as the peak sales season for Chinese EV makers.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while BYD was ‘bullish’ with ‘high’ activity. Nio was ‘bearish’ with ‘normal’ volume, and both Xpeng and Li Auto were ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

So far this year, Tesla shares are up 5.5%, while U.S.-listed stocks of Nio and Xpeng have surged 58.9% and 79.3% respectively. Li Auto’s U.S.-listed stock is up 4.3%, and BYD’s U.S.-listed stock has gained 21.5%.

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