US-Israel-Iran War: AAL Stock Down 19% This Year, Cracks 200-DMA For First Time In Over 4 Months

• The conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher, raising jet fuel expenses and squeezing airline margins.
• At the time of writing, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April delivery climbed 5.3% to $70.60 per barrel.
• According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, at least 1,560 flights were cancelled on Monday alone.

Shares of American Airlines (AAL) declined 4% on Monday, falling below its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) for the first time since Oct. 22, 2025, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted global air travel and pushed airline costs higher.

Source: TradingView

The crisis in the Middle East erupted over the weekend following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, triggering widespread airspace closures and mass cancellations across the Middle East.

According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, at least 1,560 flights were cancelled on Monday alone, bringing the total since Saturday to more than 4,000 worldwide. Key international hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, remain shut.

Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares fell 2%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) traded down 2.2% and Alaska Air Group (ALK) inched 0.8% lower.

Rising Fuel Costs Add To Pressure

The conflict has also driven oil prices higher, raising jet fuel expenses and potentially squeezing airline margins. At the time of writing, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April delivery climbed 5.3% to $70.60 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures for May rose 5.6% to $77.20 per barrel.

Analysts at ING Think noted that although the U.S. has relatively limited direct trade exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption or closure of the key shipping route would likely drive global oil prices significantly higher, worsening inflationary pressures and adding strain to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Miami Expansion And Venezuela Flight Plans

Last Month, American Airlines announced a $1 billion investment to expand Concourse D at Miami International Airport, adding a three-level extension. Construction is set to begin in 2027, with the expanded concourse expected to open around 2030.

Separately, American Airlines’ regional unit Envoy Air has filed an application with the U.S. Department of Transportation seeking approval for scheduled flights from Miami to Venezuela in February. The request follows a late-January U.S. decision to rescind a 2019 ban on flights to Venezuela, paving the way for U.S. airlines to resume service after nearly seven years

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

Despite the intraday drop, retail sentiment surrounding AAL turned ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One user urged investors to “snap up the big legacy airlines on this dip.”

However, another user sounded skeptical about the stock.

Year-to-date, the stock has slid nearly 19%.

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