VCX Heading For 50% Crash? Investor Explains ‘Wrapper-Math Short’ Logic Even In Most Bullish AI Case

• SpaceX IPO excitement and Anthropic’s $1.4 trillion implied valuation have fueled investor demand for VCX exposure.
• Anthropic represents about 21% of VCX’s portfolio, alongside holdings in OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, Ramp and SpaceX.
• Vervia Partners’ Anthony Showalter warned that VCX is trading far above the underlying value of its holdings.

Shares of Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) have turned into one of Wall Street’s hottest AI trades as retail investors rush for indirect exposure to Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI ahead of potential blockbuster IPOs. However, one investor now warns that the stock could still face a brutal reality check.

Since their respective launches, VCX has surged 2,172%, significantly outperforming rival and private-tech exposure funds, including Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ), up 692%, ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR), up 121%, and Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA), up 35%.

VCX is a closed-end fund that debuted on the NYSE in March and immediately became one of the market’s most explosive retail trades. Within days of listing, VCX surged more than 1,500% above its reported net asset value (NAV). At one point, shares traded at over 16x the fund’s reported NAV of $18.97 per share as repeated volatility halts hit the stock.

VCX Rides SpaceX And Anthropic Hype

Much of the excitement for VCX comes from surging retail interest in both SpaceX and Anthropic. SpaceX has evolved beyond a launch company into a sprawling AI, satellite broadband and infrastructure platform spanning Starlink, direct-to-cell connectivity, hyperscale processing ambitions and potential orbital data centers.

Investors have also focused heavily on the possibility of a historic SpaceX IPO that could value the company at nearly $2 trillion and trigger massive passive ETF inflows due to accelerated index inclusion rule changes across Nasdaq, S&P and FTSE Russell.

Meanwhile, Anthropic’s implied pre-IPO valuation has surged to $1.4 trillion, climbing about 40% in just 24 days as private-market demand for the Claude developer intensified ahead of a potential public listing later this year. The AI company’s implied valuation is now up more than 1,000% since October 2025, fueled largely by enterprise adoption of Claude and Claude Code. Annualized revenue estimates have climbed from $100 million in 2023 to $45 billion currently, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

Anthropic has emerged as one of the industry’s largest AI infrastructure spenders, signing major deals with Amazon Web Services, Alphabet, CoreWeave and SpaceX. Last week, Anthropic deepened ties with SpaceX by securing access to more than 300 megawatts of processing capacity from SpaceX’s Colossus 1 facility in Memphis, Tennessee.

VCX: Retail’s Gateway To Private AI

The excitement for IPOs has increasingly spilled into VCX since Anthropic alone accounts for 21% of its portfolio, while OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, Ramp and SpaceX make up other major positions.

Fundrise CEO Ben Miller has previously said that VCX gives ordinary investors access to elite private-market opportunities traditionally reserved for institutions and venture capital firms. “Let the retail investors be the ones who get the inside shares rather than the hedge funds,” Miller said in March.

Since VCX’s July 2022 inception, cumulative returns total 84%, meaning a $10,000 investment would have grown to about $19,256, including $9,030 in appreciation and $225 in distributions, according to Fundrise data. 

Investor Questions VCX’s Massive Premium

However, not everyone believes VCX’s massive rally is sustainable. Anthony Showalter, managing partner at Vervia Partners, said investors are confusing exposure to elite private companies with reasonable valuation. “This is not an anti-AI short. It is not even an anti-Fundrise short. It is a wrapper-math short,” Showalter said on X in a detailed report published on Monday.

The investor acknowledged the strength of VCX’s underlying portfolio, calling companies like Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX “extraordinary companies,” but said the premium investors are paying through VCX has detached from economic reality. “The mistake investors are making is confusing exposure with value,” Showalter said. “VCX gives you exposure to extraordinary companies. It does not follow that any price for that exposure makes sense.”

Showalter said that many traders are treating VCX like a traditional ETF, in which rising demand automatically increases ownership of the underlying holdings. According to him, VCX owns a relatively fixed number of shares in companies such as Anthropic, Databricks, Ramp and SpaceX, meaning that the fund cannot simply manufacture more exposure as demand rises.

Even VCX’s ‘Dream Scenario’ Looks Overvalued 

Using secondary-market pricing for Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI and other holdings, Showalter estimated that VCX still trades at a massive premium even under extremely bullish assumptions. In his “Aggressive Marks” scenario, Anthropic was valued at $1.3 trillion and VCX still produced an estimated NAV of only about $46 per share compared with a market price near $191. Under an even more bullish “Dream Scenario,” where major holdings doubled again from already elevated levels, Showalter estimated NAV at $76.55 per share.

“To put that another way: even if you are the most aggressive Anthropic bull alive, even if you believe Sacks is right and Anthropic becomes the most valuable company in human history, even if SpaceX and OpenAI both 6x from where they sit today, VCX still has to lose roughly half its value to reach the underlying marked NAV,” Showalter said.

Showalter also warned that ongoing share issuance could dilute investors’ exposure to key holdings over time, since Fundrise cannot acquire shares of Anthropic or SpaceX quickly enough to keep pace with the inflow of new money into the fund. “A great asset can still be a terrible security if the wrapper is priced absurdly,” he said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About VCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for VCX has jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ levels over the past week amid a 1,540% surge in 24-hour message volumes. Over the past month, the stock’s retail-watcher base has also risen by nearly 40%.

One user said, “If you believe AI is the future, then there is no other portfolio that dominates the market like $VCX … none. you're betting on the entire ecosystem: the models (Anthropic/OpenAI), the data (Databricks), and the physical application (Anduril/SpaceX). Even if one fails, the others are positioned to dominate.”

Another user said, “$VCX is absolutely ripping through levels and I’m just watching the tape in disbelief. Up +1,913% and still printing higher highs like it doesn’t care about gravity.”

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