VKTX Stock On Track To Beat LLY, NVO This Month After Obesity Drug Data — Can Viking Win Over Wegovy And Zepbound Users?

• VK2735 patients kept up to 97% of lost weight with shots every other week and up to 90% with monthly shots.
• Aronne called stopping treatment the “biggest threat” to keeping weight off and said fewer shots could help.
• Average analyst targets imply 131% upside for VKTX, versus 13% for LLY and 19% for NVO.

A sharp rally in Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) has put its obesity drug VK2735 back in the spotlight, with the stock pulling ahead of Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) as investors weigh whether Viking could one day draw patients away from Wegovy and Zepbound.

VKTX stock jumped 36% on Tuesday, logging its biggest one-day gain in over 2 years, after Viking reported that patients who lost weight on weekly VK2735 injections kept most of it off when they moved to less frequent shots. Retail sentiment also hit a record high, adding to a rally that has made Viking a standout among obesity-drug stocks.

VKTX has gained 25% over the past month, compared with a 1% rise for LLY and a 13% decline for NVO. Viking has also outpaced smaller obesity-drug developers Altimmune (ALT), up 10%, and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), down 20%. 

Could Viking Win Over Rival Drug Users?

During Tuesday’s study-results call, an analyst asked how VK2735 might perform in patients switching from approved injectables such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Obesity specialist Lou Aronne said that the outcome could depend on the treatment a patient leaves.

“Going from a triagonist to a dual agonist, you might expect some weight gain. Going from a mono-agonist to a dual agonist, you would expect greater weight loss,” Aronne said. For a switch between two dual agonists, he expects the magnitude of weight loss to be similar.  Wegovy’s Semaglutide acts on GLP-1, while Zepbound’s Tirzepatide and Viking’s VK2735 act on both GLP-1 and GIP.  

However, Viking tested whether patients could maintain weight loss while taking fewer injections. In a study of about 180 adults with obesity, those receiving weekly VK2735 lost 16% to 19% of their body weight over 21 weeks. During the next 12 weeks, patients moved to every-other-week shots retained up to 97% of that loss, and those moved to monthly shots retained up to 90%. Patients switched to placebo retained 61%. 

An exploratory group that stayed on weekly VK2735 reached a mean weight loss of 21.7% at week 33, with no plateau observed. Gastrointestinal side effects during the less frequent maintenance schedules were similar to placebo.

For Aronne, the opportunity is in helping patients stay on treatment after they reach their weight-loss goals. “If you look at the biggest threat to weight loss maintenance with the current drugs, it's that people stop taking them after a period of time,” he said. “If they could take them less frequently, I firmly believe that they would do a better job of it.”

Viking hopes to examine both every-other-week and monthly dosing in extensions of its Phase 3 injectable trials. CEO Brian Lian said that the company has asked the FDA questions about dose selection and frequency and has not settled on the regimens.

VKTX’s Upside Forecast Dwarfs LLY And NVO 

Analysts also see more upside in Viking than in the established obesity-drug makers. VKTX’s average 12-month price target of $94.45 implies a 131% upside from current levels. Of the 20 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it ‘Strong Buy,’ 13 rate it ‘Buy,’ and 2 rate it ‘Hold.’ None rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

Lilly’s average target of $1,325.39 implies a 13% upside from its last close. Among its 30 covering analysts, 6 rate it ‘Strong Buy,’ 19 ‘Buy,’ 3 ‘Hold,’ 1 ‘Sell’ and 1 ‘Strong Sell.’ Meanwhile, Novo’s implied upside stands at 19%, though its ratings are more cautious. Of 25 analysts, 5 rate it ‘Buy,’ 16 ‘Hold,’ 3 ‘Sell’ and 1 ‘Strong Sell.’ None rate it ‘Strong Buy.’

Over the past year, VKTX and LLY each gained about 56%, while NVO fell 33%. Viking also outpaced the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), up 26%, and the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB), up 47%, but trailed the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which climbed 67%.

Obesity Giants Building Their Next Line Of Defense 

Viking’s results come after a difficult start to the week for Novo. On Monday, the Wegovy maker presented Phase 3 data for its investigational drug CagriSema and outlined longer-term growth plans at its capital markets day. But investors remained concerned about competition and the future of its portfolio as key Semaglutide exclusivity approaches its end in the early 2030s.

Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said on Tuesday that the company was interested in deals where an outside developer had produced a better drug that could fill a gap in its pipeline. Novo’s partnering strategy includes acquiring small and midsize biotech companies or their assets. 

Lilly has also been an active acquirer this year, expanding into areas beyond obesity through deals including Merida Biosciences and AtaiBeckley. Meanwhile, its existing weight-loss franchise continues to grow: second-quarter Zepbound sales hit about $4.9 billion, while Mounjaro, its diabetes drug containing the same active ingredient, generated about $9.9 billion.

Viking is still building the evidence it would need to challenge the franchises. Its two injectable Phase 3 trials are fully enrolled, with results expected in 2027, and it is preparing Phase 3 studies of an oral VK2735 formulation.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About VKTX, NVO And LLY?

Retail attention has picked up across all three stocks, though sentiment has moved in different directions. On Stocktwits, VKTX sentiment climbed to a record 95 out of 100, rising to 'extremely bullish' from 'bullish' a month ago, as message volume surged 352% over the same period. Followers are up 6% over the past year.

Novo saw an even sharper shift, with sentiment swinging to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bearish,’ alongside a 210% jump in monthly message volume and a 36% rise in followers over the past year. Lilly’s sentiment improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish,’ with message volume up 58% over the past month and followers up 17% over the past year.

One user pointed to Viking’s valuation alongside Zepbound and Mounjaro sales, saying, “Current mcap is 3.5 bn $. Do ur math.” Another argued that Viking’s dosing options could appeal more than the Wegovy pill. However, a skeptical user cautioned that people already doing well on Ozempic or Zepbound might be less likely to join VK2735 trials, making comparisons difficult. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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