One Chinese EV Stock Surged 80% In 2025 – But Two Others Told Very Different Stories

• Morgan Stanley picked XPeng among its preferred China auto stocks for the first half of 2026.
• Nio’s vehicle sales till November rose more than 45%.
• Li Auto’s decline came amid falling sales and weak results.

As 2025 comes to an end, U.S.-listed Chinese EV stocks are finishing a year of sharp contrasts after a sector-wide rebound from a turbulent 2024. Improving demand and clearer policy support lifted sentiment, but stock performance diverged widely.

XPeng stood out on surging deliveries and stronger financials, while Nio delivered steady progress and renewed year-end optimism. Li Auto lagged amid falling sales, recalls, and margin pressure, leaving investors focused on which names can carry momentum into 2026 as subsidies are extended.

Let’s take a look at how they fared in 2025.

XPeng Inc. (XPEV)

The top U.S.-listed Chinese EV stock this year, XPeng shares have climbed 80% as of Tuesday’s close, more than three times that of Nio’s. 2025 marked a pivotal year with third-quarter (Q3) deliveries surging 149% to a record 116,007 vehicles, while total deliveries in the first nine months of 2025 jumped 218% to 313,196 vehicles.

Operationally, its Q3 revenue more than doubled to RMB20.38 billion (US$2.86 billion), while net loss narrowed to $0.05 billion. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue between RMB21.5 billion and RMB23 billion.

Morgan Stanley picked XPeng among its preferred China auto stocks for the first half of 2026. While noting cyclical and policy headwinds, the firm highlighted XPeng’s domestic resilience, overseas growth, and upside potential if it scales revenue beyond core vehicle sales.

Retail sentiment for XPEV on Stocktwits has remained in the ‘bearish’ zone over the past 24 hours.

Nio Inc. (Nio)

NIO’s stock gained a little over 26% so far this year, underpinned by solid growth, with vehicle deliveries in 2025 rising more than 45% to 277,893 units as of November 30. Third-quarter deliveries totaled 87,071 vehicles, up 40.8%, driven by balanced contributions across its NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY brands.

Financial performance also improved, with third-quarter revenue climbing 16.7% to RMB21.79 billion, while net losses narrowed to RMB3.48 billion. Earlier this week, Chinese media outlet 36kr reported that NIO CEO William Li told customers the company is targeting 30 billion yuan in vehicle sales in the fourth quarter. NIO expects fourth-quarter deliveries to reach 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, a 65.1% to 72% increase from last year.

Freedom Capital recently upgraded NIO to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ and raised its price target to $7 from $6.50, citing accelerating delivery growth. The analyst expects rising shipments next year to push revenue to new record levels.

Retail sentiment for Nio on Stocktwits turned ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ a day earlier.

Li Auto Inc (Li)

The worst-performing stock on this list in 2025, Li Auto shares have declined 28% so far this year, amid falling sales and weak results. Third-quarter revenue slid 36.2% to RMB27.4 billion, while vehicle sales revenue dropped 37.4%, and the company swung to a net loss of RMB624.4 million from a profit a year earlier.

Delivery trends remained under pressure, with November volumes down nearly 32% and year-to-date deliveries falling 18.1% as demand for its flagship L-series EREV models remained soft. The company was further weighed down by a recall of 11,411 MEGA EVs in China, following coolant issues and a fire incident.

Earlier this month, HSBC downgraded Li Auto to ‘Hold’ from Buy and slashed its price target significantly to $18.60 from $30.30. The bank cited major recalls, delivery issues, falling sales, and cut earnings estimates by 82% due to shrinking margins and an uncertain 2026 outlook.

However, retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ on the previous day.

Technical Watch

On the technical charts, XPeng and Nio are trading over their 200-day moving average (200-DMA), while Li Auto has remained in a downtrend since breaking below key resistance in early October.

2026 Outlook

Looking ahead, China confirmed on Tuesday that vehicle trade-in subsidies will be extended into 2026, easing concerns about policy support.

However, Deutsche Bank cast a bearish view on overall sales projections, stating that while trade-in subsidies may temporarily boost retail sales in January 2026, overall sales are expected to decline year-on-year in the first half, according to a report by CNEVPost on Wednesday. Separately, UBS expects China’s EV sales growth to halve next year from around 20% in 2025, roughly.

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