October (Pumptober) is, historically, one of the better-performing months for cryptocurrencies. How good is it? Let’s take a look.
|
Year |
Performance |
Year |
Performance |
|
2011 |
3.17% |
2017 |
48.58% |
|
2012 |
-9.67% |
2018 |
-4.97% |
|
2013 |
48.82% |
2019 |
10.22% |
|
2014 |
-12.97% |
2020 |
-7.53% |
|
2015 |
33.62% |
2021 |
40.42% |
|
2016 |
14.44% |
2022 |
Monthly Average Gain/Loss: 14.29%
Biggest Loss: -12.97%
Biggest Gain: 48.82%
Pumptober is in stark contrast to Dumptember (September). The September 2, 2022 Litepaper highlighted how September has historically been bearish for the crypto market. If you don’t remember the monthly Bitcoin ($BTC.X) analysis from the September 2 Litepaper, you can read it here.
If you do remember it, you must have an eidetic memory. Or, if you’re like me, after coming back from a family trip over the weekend with a screaming 2-year-old and a 6-month-old, you have a hard time remembering what you ate for supper last night.
The image above is the chart shared back on September 2, 2022. Below is the current monthly chart after the September close.
While Bitcoin closed in September 2022 with a new 21-month low, from a price and oscillator perspective, not much has changed. In fact, the RSI from August’s close to September’s close was almost entirely flat.
For bulls, the price levels of importance on Bitcoin’s monthly chart have not changed from September. Senkou Span B remains the nearest support level within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system at the $10,000 value area, while the Tenkan-Sen at $33,000 remains the closest resistance level.
For Bitcoin to close at either the Tenkan-Sen or the Kijun-Sen, Bitcoin would have to create the largest moves in its history for October: +69% and -48%, respectively.
One more important consideration is the Cloud itself. Note where Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B – that is called a Kumo Twists. Kumo Twists can identify when possible turns in a market will occur, and the change can happen anywhere between two periods before or after the Kumo Twist.
For Bitcoin, Pumptober is definitely within that time range to see a change in direction. But until there is a strong and responsive push by buyers, sellers look to remain in control of the market.