‘Late to Recognize Value’ – MARA Hits Back At Morgan Stanley Over Price Target Cut, Starwood Joint Venture

• Robert Samules, MARA Holding’s vice president of investor relations, challenged Morgan Stanley’s latest research note after the bank lowered its price target on the company to $7 from $8.50.
• He said that Morgan Stanley’s assumptions around the Starwood joint venture were inaccurate and understated its economics.
• Morgan Stanley maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on MARA’s stock while stating it would not fully value pipeline megawatts until lease agreements are signed.

MARA Holdings (MARA) pushed back against a recent Morgan Stanley research report on Tuesday, with the company’s head of investor relations disputing the bank’s valuation approach and characterization of the company’s Starwood joint venture.

“If you actually read the note, the math appears incorrect regarding the Starwood JV, even after we provided an illustrative example of how the economics work,” vice president of investor relations at MARA, Robert Samuels, stated in a post on X.

The response came after Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on MARA to $7 from $8.50 while maintaining an ‘Underweight’ rating following the company’s first-quarter (Q1) results, as per TheFly.

MARA’s stock was the only one among crypto-linked equities to see its price target trimmed. Others who were also repriced, including TeraWulf (WULF), Cipher Mining (CIFR), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL), saw targets raised.

MARA Pushes Back On Morgan Stanley’s Starwood JV Assumptions

Samuels said that several interpretations of the report circulating online were inaccurate and clarified that Morgan Stanley was not “selling” any shares, but rather publishing a sell-side research note. He also noted that Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette has maintained an ‘Underweight’ rating on MARA since initiating coverage several months ago.

Morgan Stanley acknowledged the growth potential of the Starwood joint venture in its note but said it would continue valuing pipeline megawatts at only a 10% probability of electrification until a formal lease agreement is signed.

“The analyst openly acknowledges that he is waiting for a lease to be signed, which is typical of the sell-side: often late to recognize value until it is already obvious,” Samuels wrote. MARA CEO Fred Thiel recently stated that AI deals are most likely to arrive by year-end and the firm will not spend on AI builds until tenants are confirmed.

MARA’s stock fell 1.4% in midday trade on Tuesday. Retail sentiment around the Bitcoin (BTC) miner, who is among the largest corporate holders of the apex cryptocurrency, trended in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day on Stocktwits. Retail chatter dropped from ‘high’ to ‘low’ levels.

CRCL, CIFR, WULF Stocks Get A Price Target Hike

Faucette raised the price target on CRCL’s stock to $106 from $80 and kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating on the shares, citing higher yield assumptions and a "material" other revenue tailwind from Arc. 

He stated that the CLARITY Act's passage out of the Senate Banking Committee was a positive development for both Circle and the broader digital asset ecosystem. However, Faucette also noted that "the bill is not yet law" and the Senate floor vote and potential bill revisions remain "key hurdles.”

CRCL’s stock gained 1.5% in midday trade. Retail sentiment on Stocktwit around the USDC stablecoin (USDC) issuer trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter.

Morgan Stanley also raised the price target on TeraWulf’s shares to $42 from $41.50 and on Cipher Mining’s shares to $42.50 from $40.50, with an ‘Overweight’ rating on both shares. 

WULF’s stock dropped 3.45% in midday trade, while CIFR’s stock fell 4.72%. Retail sentiment around both companies trended in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, amid ‘low’ levels of chatter.

Read also: SpaceX, Palantir, Bitcoin Are Pricing The Same War — Just From Different Sides, According To 10x Research

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com