ASTS Stock Hits 2026 Low: Analyst Warns GOOGL Stake Could Shrink To Near Zero With SpaceX IPO

• Analyst Tim Farrar warned a SpaceX IPO could shrink Alphabet’s AST stake from 25% to less than 1%.
• BlueBird-7 launch failure raises execution risks for ASTS, with BofA estimating a 7-unit miss against its 2026 satellite target.
• Farrar had also flagged technical risks for AST’s legacy handset model.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slid to their lowest levels so far this year on Monday amid growing concerns that a blockbuster SpaceX IPO could drive a major rebalancing in Alphabet’s holdings, leaving the satellite firm with less than a 1% share of the portfolio.

ASTS stock fell more than 3% on Monday, ending at $68.43, but edged up overnight. 

SpaceX IPO May Shrink Alphabet’s AST Stake

Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar said on X that expectations around AST SpaceMobile’s stake within Alphabet’s portfolio, which currently stands at 25%, may shrink after a SpaceX IPO. Alphabet is AST Spacemobile’s fourth-largest investor. 

“I expect the #cluelesscult will stop posting this nonsense after the SpaceX IPO when they finally realize that SpaceX will then be ~97% of Alphabet's public stock portfolio and AST will be <1%,” he said.

The warning comes amid mounting anticipation for a potential SpaceX IPO, which could value the company at about $1.75 trillion and become one of the largest listings ever. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, currently serves around 10 million monthly active users and is projected to exceed 25 million by the end of this year. Its estimated revenue totals $9 billion for this year.

According to Alexandra Merz, CEO of L&F Investor Services, the IPO could trigger rapid passive inflows due to changes in index inclusion rules. She said Nasdaq’s updated framework could allow SpaceX to enter the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days, potentially driving $8 billion to $12 billion in passive buying.

Additional flows could come from FTSE Russell benchmarks and CRSP indexes tracked by Vanguard, potentially adding tens of billions more in demand, while a relatively low float of 8% to 18% could amplify early price moves. Fund managers are also reportedly preparing allocations for the IPO, with some considering trimming positions in large-cap tech stocks, including Tesla, to fund exposure to SpaceX.

ASTS Faces Tech, Regulatory Headwinds

Farrar has also previously raised concerns about the technical viability of AST SpaceMobile’s approach, particularly its reliance on legacy smartphones. “Every aspect that is problematic for Starlink is worse for AST when using legacy handsets,” he said, pointing to higher latency from longer signal paths, increased reliance on ground-based systems, and timing mismatches due to broader beam coverage.

A March study by Tsinghua University found that even with engineering adjustments, SpaceX’s direct-to-device system experiences 25% to 30% packet loss and frequent connection handoffs every 20 to 30 seconds, highlighting broader challenges in adapting terrestrial 4G and 5G standards to satellite networks.

On the regulatory front, AST SpaceMobile faced a setback after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) dismissed requests from several operators, including the company, for expanded access to portions of the 1.5 GHz and 2 GHz mobile-satellite spectrum. However, this was partially offset by a separate FCC decision approving the company's deployment of up to 248 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites using low-band spectrum, integrated with carrier partners such as Verizon, AT&T, and FirstNet.

ASTS May Miss 2026 Deployment Target

Investor sentiment has also been impacted by recent execution issues. A launch anomaly during Blue Origin’s New Glenn Mission-3 prevented the BlueBird-7 satellite from entering its intended orbit, raising concerns about deployment timelines.

While AST SpaceMobile said production of BlueBird-8 through BlueBird-10 is ongoing, BofA Securities analyst Michael Funk noted that the incident could affect the company’s target of deploying around 45 satellites by the end of 2026. Assuming launches every 1 to 2 months and an average of 5.5 satellites per launch, the firm estimates the company could fall short of that target by about 7 satellites.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user said ASTS stock is “a steal below $70.”

Another user said, “I am long and remain hopeful, but the delays are making it harder to get to the 45-60 target in the next 7 months.”

ASTS stock has surged 159% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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