Eli Lilly Heads Toward A Defining 2026 — Can It Stay Ahead Of Novo Nordisk In The GLP-1 Showdown?

• Novo’s oral Wegovy launch has intensified competition for Eli Lilly heading into 2026.
• Lilly’s outlook hinges on oral drug approvals, data readouts and execution this year.
• Eli Lilly’s share weakness reflects pricing pressure amid the GLP-1 rivalry.

Over the past year, Eli Lilly has led the obesity drug market, driven by strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, favorable head-to-head data, and investor confidence in GLP-1 therapies. That momentum pushed Lilly’s market value close to $1 trillion late last year. 

Lilly’s dominance is now being tested after Novo Nordisk launched its FDA-approved oral Wegovy pill in the U.S., priced from $149 a month for lower doses, with some insured patients paying as little as $25. The move marked the first oral GLP-1 for weight loss to reach the market and signaled Novo’s push to regain ground. Lilly shares logged their worst day in five months following the announcement.

Why 2026 Is A Pivotal Year For Lilly

Analysts at Leerink Partners have described 2026 as a defining year for Lilly, projecting revenue could reach about $94.3 billion by 2027, more than double its 2024 level. A key driver is Lilly’s expected entry into the oral obesity market with Orforglipron, which Leerink expects could be approved in the second quarter after Lilly received a priority review voucher late last year, according to a report by BioSpace.

Leerink said the oral obesity market will be a key driver of Lilly’s growth outlook into 2026. The launch of lower-priced pills and expanding access have increased investor focus on scale and pricing across the GLP-1 category.

Pills vs Injectables 

Leerink said oral obesity drugs should be easier to manufacture than injectables and noted Lilly may hold an advantage because Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug, compared with Novo’s peptide-based pill. 

On the other hand, KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Paul Knight has said injectable GLP-1s are likely to remain the preferred option for the fastest and deepest weight loss, with oral drugs potentially supplementing injections rather than replacing them, Barron’s reported.

Lilly’s data have so far favored its leadership narrative. Tirzepatide has shown greater weight loss than Novo’s semaglutide, while Lilly’s oral candidate has beaten semaglutide in reducing A1C in diabetes studies. Leerink said another key catalyst is expected in the first quarter, when Novo reports Phase III results from a head-to-head obesity study comparing CagriSema with Lilly’s Tirzepatide.

Pricing Pressure 

Pricing competition is intensifying globally as Lilly recently cut Mounjaro prices in China, mirroring earlier moves by Novo on Wegovy, while both companies have made voluntary price cuts in the U.S. Policy developments add another layer, with a voluntary Medicare GLP-1 payment demonstration expected to begin in July that could lower out-of-pocket costs and broaden access, according to a Bloomberg report.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Eli Lilly was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while Novo Nordisk saw ‘bullish’ sentiment alongside ‘high’ message volume.

One user said Lilly’s shares could follow a pattern similar to Costco’s, pointing to a gradual pullback toward the $800-range.

Another user said, “when everyone is selling LLY to buy NVO is exactly why it may be time to get back in LLY”

While Lilly’s stock has risen 34% over the past 12 months, Novo’s U.S.-listed stock has declined 36% over the same period.

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