Tesla Stock Dips Overnight: US Demand Signals Weakness Ahead Of Closely Watched Q1 Delivery Print

• Fresh U.S. registration data signaled continued weakness in domestic demand ahead of the Q1 delivery report.
• Q1 U.S. registrations totaled 119,900 vehicles, down 12.5% from a year earlier.
• Wall Street expects about 365,645 deliveries, while researcher Troy Teslike projects roughly 375,000 vehicles for the quarter.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped nearly 2% in overnight trading late Sunday after fresh U.S. data pointed to weakness in domestic demand ahead of the company’s first-quarter (Q1) delivery report, which is expected to be driven largely by Model 3 and Model Y volumes.

TSLA stock jumped nearly 3% on Wednesday, logging its second straight session of gains.

Tesla US Sales Decline Continues Into March

Tesla sold 41,300 vehicles in the U.S. in March, down 7.9% from a year earlier, EV reported, citing data from Motor Intelligence. The figure was slightly higher than February’s 38,500 units, but still extended a broader slowdown in U.S. demand. In Q1, registrations stood at 119,900 vehicles, marking a 12.5% decline from the 136,985 units recorded in the same period last year.

March also marked the sixth straight month of year-over-year declines in Tesla’s U.S. registrations. The only recent break in that trend came in the third quarter of 2025, when buyers rushed to take advantage of EV tax credits ahead of the Sept.30 deadline.

Tesla does not report monthly U.S. sales directly. Motor Intelligence compiles registration-based estimates that investors often track as an early signal ahead of Tesla’s official quarterly delivery update.

Tesla Q1 Delivery Forecast Tops 365,000

Wall Street is currently expecting Tesla to report roughly 365,645 global deliveries in Q1 on Thursday, based on company-compiled estimates from 23 sell-side analysts. However, independent Tesla researcher Troy Teslike sees a stronger outcome, projecting about 375,000 vehicles.

The estimates come after Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025, which Teslike called “unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition.” Both Teslike’s estimate and the Street’s consensus suggest Model 3 and Model Y will once again account for the vast majority of deliveries. Teslike expects about 359,251 vehicles from the two models combined, versus 351,179 under consensus forecasts. 

Deliveries from Model S, Model X and Cybertruck are projected at 15,749 vehicles under his estimate, compared with 13,946 in the company-compiled forecast. He also expects total production to reach about 400,719 vehicles, including roughly 385,890 Model 3 and Model Y units.

Model 3, Model Y Continue To Drive Tesla Deliveries

Model 3 and Model Y remain the backbone of Tesla’s deliveries, especially after updated Standard versions introduced late last year in the U.S. and Europe lowered entry-level pricing by about $5,000. The Model Y now starts at $39,990, while the Model 3 begins at $36,990, with several drivetrain and trim configurations available. Tesla also recently brought back a seven-seat Model Y option in the U.S. 

Higher-end vehicles make up only a small portion of overall deliveries. Model S, Model X and Cybertruck accounted for 11,642 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2025. Tesla also introduced a lower-priced Cybertruck variant starting at $59,990, but delivery timelines for new orders now stretch into 2027 after a confirmed $10,000 price increase.

The upcoming release will also be the first delivery report since Tesla ended production of the Model S sedan and Model X SUV, as capacity shifts toward the company’s Optimus humanoid robot.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has remained in the ‘bearish’ territory over the past week amid an over 200% quarterly rise in message volume.

One user said, “Tesla will have worst Q1 deliveries as compare to other EV companies.”

Another user noted, “Tesla is not viewed as a car company.  Bad delivery won’t hurt but a good delivery would definitely help.  Low risk, high reward.”

TSLA stock has declined 15% year-to-date, ranking as the second-worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks right after Microsoft. 

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